The Art of Doomsaying

[treegod]

So how do you do it?
How do you break the news to someone that humanity could be wiped off the planet because of our own stupidity?
How do you say that without causing the opposite reaction to what you want?
http://thegroveofquotes.wordpress.com/2 ... oomsaying/

[Dryadia2]

Greetings Treegod,

My tactic is 'lead by example', since I don't like to preach, but give my opinions instead, as to why I think something is important. I see myself like the hermit on the tarot card, the one who holds the lantern, so that others may find their own path.

Peace and Blessings,
/|\

[Nicholaas]

I agree, since I cannot stand some preaching to me about anything, I in turn try not to do the same to others. I like your lead by example method.

I like to show people numbers. Studies. Data. It's hard to argue with cold hard facts.

[treegod]

I like the "lead buy example" thing too. It stops making an important issue a contentious one and also
But we're in a desperate time now, and many people are too stupid to follow examples. Isn't there anything more efficient than leading by example, something that doesn't intefere with Free Will?

I agree, since I cannot stand some preaching to me about anything, I in turn try not to do the same to others. I like your lead by example method.

I like to show people numbers. Studies. Data. It's hard to argue with cold hard facts.

Are you sure about that? I mean, that's why there are problems with Creation-evolution right?
I was having a conversation with my Grandma last year, I was talking about a book (James Lovelock's Revenge of Gaia) and she just said "But that's just someones opinion". Well that's true, but one that is undergoing testing that can potentially make it "cold hard fact." Much of the theory already is!

In my experience myth, symbol, fiction etc can sometimes convince better than fact. It has a more subtle, less glaring quality that makes it an easier pill to swallow.

[Nicholaas]

Pretty sure, yeah. And while I may get flack for this....there are no problems with creationism/Evolution. There are simply people who choose to be willfully ignorant of the facts. Yeah, that might be harsh. Yeah, some may call me out of line. But to be honest, I cannot stand it when people put the two on the same intellectual level; they are not. Evolution is right there, in our faces, if we choose to see it for what it is. Creationism (as derived from the creation accounts of Judeo-Christianity) is fantasy, myth, allegory...it's a story about the human psyche, not how life began and thrived.

I personally find fact a much "easier pill to swallow". It's there, it's real. I've studied radiation biology for my profession...it is much easier to swallow than creation mythology. If I take an x-ray, the verifiable properties of said photons will produce predicted results based on the "facts" we have learned about them. That isn't to say myth and lore cannot teach us anything. In truth, I think it's a vital aspect of learning about the human condition. But I think the mistake is made when we think human mythology teaches us about the world proper, or that the two are connected in any tangeable way.

I do not mean to offend anyone, honestly.

[treegod]

“There are simply people who choose to be willfully ignorant of the facts.”

That’s exactly what I meant about a problem with creation-evolution.

“Creationism (as derived from the creation accounts of Judeo-Christianity) is fantasy, myth, allegory...it's a story about the human psyche, not how life began and thrived.”

I agree.

I’ve been inspired, so I wrote this a couple of days ago;

We can’t just be convinced via the intellect, we are not 100% rational creatures, we can be quite irrational. It used to surprise me when I’d explain something quite logical for someone to stare blankly at me or outright deny my statement! It doesn’t surprise me any more though.
Cold hard facts do not speak to instinct, emotion or imagination. We can repress these so that they don’t interfere with our rational evaluation of the Cold Hard Facts, but they will still be there, in the psyche, unconvinced.

If humans were moved by Cold Hard Facts alone, we wouldn’t be in the mess that we’re in now. We could simply think our way out of our economical, ecological or social problems. But, of course, we haven’t. There are deeper psychological structures to engage with and a whole gamut of irrational feelings; greed, fear, lust, laziness, prejudice etc

In my writings I get more of a response if I make myself more emotive; put a few jokes in, express some emotion, use a few colloquialisms etc etc. If I show little heart, if I express a little personality, if I show I’m a feeling person as well as a thinking person, I make myself easier on the eye, so to speak, I make myself more acceptable to the complex human mind than all the technical Cold Hard Fact language that I have at my disposal. It holds people’s interest and motivates them better than Cold Hard Facts alone.

Symbols and personality work very well too, they infiltrate the human psyche, often without being detected. The gods of Hollywood, and their on-screen adventures, have quite a big impact on their worldwide following of devotees. Apparently, when James Lovelock first tried to explain his Gaia Hypothesis (before he’d called it Gaia Hypothesis), few understood what he was trying to say, then he labeled it with “Gaia” and suddenly it struck a chord of understanding in people, it became relatable. Others with a chip on their shoulders about personified or religious terms gave a passionate response against the use of Gaia, without evaluating the theory itself.

Some people may be trained to recognise and be convinced by Cold Hard Facts but most people aren’t. Most people are unrepentantly irrational in the choices they make and the beliefs they hold. One study I read was about how people vote. It discovered that many people value party loyalty above sound policy. Instead of rationally weighing up the pro and cons of each party’s policies they just say “I’m Labour” or “I’m Conservative,” or “I’m Lib Dem and that’s that!” I mean who cares about diverting funds from education and health into war, right? As long as “our people” are in power that’s fine.

Cold Hard Facts are one way of convincing people, but alone, they stand no chance in redirecting humanity into conviction. Not without engaging their hearts.

Or to put it more simply; “Every political movement has its psychological dimension. Persuading people to alter their behavior always involves probing motivations and debating values; political activism begins with asking what makes people tick. What do they want and fear and care about? How do we get and hold their attention? How much can people take- and in what order of priority? Have we overloaded them with anxiety or guilt? How do we make credible the threats we perceive? Movements that fail to think carefully about this may fail to persuade.” Theodore Roszak

[DJ Droood]

Pretty sure, yeah. And while I may get flack for this....there are no problems with creationism/Evolution. There are simply people who choose to be willfully ignorant of the facts. Yeah, that might be harsh. Yeah, some may call me out of line. But to be honest, I cannot stand it when people put the two on the same intellectual level; they are not. Evolution is right there, in our faces, if we choose to see it for what it is. Creationism (as derived from the creation accounts of Judeo-Christianity) is fantasy, myth, allegory...it's a story about the human psyche, not how life began and thrived.

Unless you were humouring your granny or something, do you really care what someone who believes in "Creationism" or "Intelligent (snicker) Design" thinks? Let them commiserate at bible study.

As for doomsaying, I realized I wasn't much good at it when my Y2K supplies started turning bad in 2002. I am all for gloomy pessimism about the future of Civilization, but humanity keeps proving itself to be "resourceful" and "adaptable" and making me look foolish, so I tend to not prognosticate as often as I would like to.

[Nicholaas]

unless you were humouring your granny or something, do you really care what someone who believes in "Creationism" or "Intelligent (snicker) Design" thinks? Let them commiserate at bible study.

Actually, yeah. I'll tell you why: when those people end up in positions of power, unfluence, and great monetary backing, then they have the ability to widely broadcast their beliefs. And they do so aimed at very particular demographics: the young, the uneducated, 3rd world countries, etc. They seek not open dialogue and healthy debate, but to corrupt the minds of those who are more susceptable to their nonsense simply to add to their numbers and propogate their ignorance. Kind of like what Rush Limbaugh does. =P

[DJ Droood]

unless you were humouring your granny or something, do you really care what someone who believes in "Creationism" or "Intelligent (snicker) Design" thinks? Let them commiserate at bible study.

Actually, yeah. I'll tell you why: when those people end up in positions of power, unfluence, and great monetary backing, then they have the ability to widely broadcast their beliefs. And they do so aimed at very particular demographics: the young, the uneducated, 3rd world countries, etc. They seek not open dialogue and healthy debate, but to corrupt the minds of those who are more susceptable to their nonsense simply to add to their numbers and propogate their ignorance. Kind of like what Rush Limbaugh does. =P

yea, good point. Our Science Minister, who is part of the Christian Conservative puppet government installed in Canada by Bush, (even though the puppet-master is gone...Canada didn't get the memo yet) doesn't believe in, or even understand Evolution. (Gary Goodyear..I hope this gets indexed in google and helps remind people forever what an out-of-depth bumpkin you are) He has become a laughing-stock, but he will do damage, or at least waste time and money, while he still holds the portfolio. Luckily, the vast majority of my countryfolk are embarrassed by this sort of ignorance (I'm sure the handlers are saying "Creationism plays well in Kansas..why not Quebec??")

And to nod back to the thread topic, do you think the "art" of doomsaying is very much like the "art" of, say, card-reading, which is to say, cold reading? The prognosticator reads environmental clues, judges the fears of the audience and makes a prediction? Because the predictions are in the future, when bad things happen, people focus on the bad things and not who predicted it. I started saying the American economy would soon begin to collapse about 5 years ago (not really my prediction, but stuff I stole from a book called "The Long Emergency".) I told my wife, who said "unhuh", but I was convinced and withdrew all the monies in my retirement plan from American equities...I figured I should support my own collapsing economy....so when the American economy really started to collapse, I said to my wife "See!!!" and she said "unhuh." So even when we are right, doomsayers doen't get much respect. (my even more doomy friend said if I had any conviction at all, i would have withdrawn all my retirement plan money and put it in seed and chickens)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_reading

And i'm sorry if i am rambling in your topic, treegod, but I think ignorance is a huge factor in our downfall..here is a humourous articles on ignorance and evolution that is worth reading to the end..here is a sample....
http://www.dangardner.ca/Colapr0409.html

Another critical fact you won't hear in the mainstream media is that much of the evidence allegedly establishing that the earth is 4.5 billion years old and life has evolved from common origins over the last 2.5 billion years is fraudulent. Yes, fraudulent. Those responsible are dwarves who dwell in vaults dug deep beneath the Swiss Alps.

Indeed, Mr. Charles Darwin was not the bearded Englishman people believe he was. He was, in fact, a Swiss dwarf. He did have a beard, though. All dwarves have beards.

Yes, I am a Lunatarian. I worship the moon, which I believe to be a living creature. A cat, to be precise. A really big, very round cat. In space.

In my faith, we believe it was 3,213 years ago -- plus several months, days, etc. -- that the moon coughed up the most awesome hair ball in the history of the universe. And thus was the earth created.

The dwarves don't want people to know any of this. They prefer dogs.

[katie bridgewater]

So how do you do it?
How do you break the news to someone that humanity could be wiped off the planet because of our own stupidity?
http://thegroveofquotes.wordpress.com/2 ... oomsaying/

I wouldn't bother - the fact that anyone needs it pointed out is how we've ended up like this in the first place...
My preferred tactic? Make sure I am fully prepared for the 'end times' whilst not giving any tips to those too stupid to notice it's coming, in the hope that once the dust has settled, the only humans left will be sensible ones!

[treegod]

My preferred tactic? Make sure I am fully prepared for the 'end times' whilst not giving any tips to those too stupid to notice it's coming, in the hope that once the dust has settled, the only humans left will be sensible ones!

I don't think there is that hope. We all live on the same planet, sensible and stupid alike and from what I see it's all or nothing. We all live on the same planet, there's nowhere to run, no where to hide. We all share the same planetary destiny. If you want sensible humans to survive you're going to have to work with the stupid ones to make things better. Even hermits are affected by climate change, the sensible cannot survive in isolation from the stupid.
It's "All for one and one for all" and "united we stand divided we fall", or we will be "divided and conquered".

So much stupidity to clean up, so little time... I need chearing up.

I am all for gloomy pessimism about the future of Civilization, but humanity keeps proving itself to be "resourceful" and "adaptable" and making me look foolish, so I tend to not prognosticate as often as I would like to.

Tell us, oh pessimistic prognosticator, your optimistic experience of human resourcefulness and adaptability. Maybe it's enough to make me

[Hennie]

So if it all ends in disaster, is that really more than a very tiny foot note in the history of the universe, even it means an ending of all live on Earth (for the time being). Of course it all will be accompanied by great (human) suffering and no I am not a masochist, so I am not enjoying any of this. Shouldn't we go out to our partners, children, parents, friends, neighbours etc. and try to bring some consolation, if there isn't any hope anymore?

[DJ Droood]

I am all for gloomy pessimism about the future of Civilization, but humanity keeps proving itself to be "resourceful" and "adaptable" and making me look foolish, so I tend to not prognosticate as often as I would like to.

Tell us, oh pessimistic prognosticator, your optimistic experience of human resourcefulness and adaptability. Maybe it's enough to make me

I suppose the simple fact that I (and you and you and you) can trace an unbroken chain of parents back through time, through some very rough moments (the Last Glacial Maximum, and the like), shows that just in our own family, we have survived the very worst and managed to raise up ankle-biters at the same time. Oh, penicillin and the like...that helped...we were smart at that point. I think we can mess things up enough to wipe out entire civilizations, but I have every confidence we will keep trudging along and doing what we do best...complaining and making babies.

[treegod]

You're absolutely right, we come from a long line of survivors. It's just we are now faced with a global challeneg never seen before. We've proved that civilisations (some not all) can survive at a local scale, but now it must prove itself at a global scale. The stakes are high, we survive or go extinct.
In the past civilisations have gone extinct, but there has always been a back up. The people could move somewhere else, or there were other humans to migrate and take their place etc. This time there are no "other" humans to take our place, the Earth is our limit. We have all of our eggs in one basket, or one planet, so to speak.

I was reading The Guardian recently, as I sometimes do, and in it there were two interesting articles that showed the sort of psychological dynamics we're struggling against...

Would you choose the extinction of a species (like cod) over an "embarrasing" and "unfashionable" species of fish (like pollack)? Some would...
"Pollack, once deemed fit only for the cat, is being given a new name by the supermarket chain Sainsbury's after research showed that many customers were embarrassed to ask for it." http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009 ... ish-stocks
The reason for eating pollack instead of cod, is that cod stocks are dwindling and being overfished. The Cold Hard Facts are that we should eat less cod and find an alternative. But people value their pride over endangered species! Sainsbury's are trying to make pollack more popular, remove the stigma that it is "fit only for the cat".
I feel this is only a superficial, short term, solution. What really needs to be resolved is the way of thinking present here,that people think looking "fashionable" or "popular" is more important than the existence of a species. I mean what happens when the pollack is overfished? Do we find an alternative species to eat or do we stop this nonsense once and for all and learn to care for other living beings above our egotistical image?

Another problem is what Anthony Giddens calls the Giddens' Paradox: "however massive the dangers posed by climate change, their lack of immediate visibility in daily life means many people will do nothing concrete to tackle it; by the time they are prompted to action it will, by definition, be too late." http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... ate-change
Al Gore depicted this quite well; in his film he showed a frog being put straight into boiling water whereupon it immediately jumped out. Another frog was placed into cold water which was then boiled. Once the water started to boil the frog had not realised the danger it was in, and so it would have died there and then, except Al had the mercy to rescue it and let it sunbathe.
We are like that frog that is being boiled but doesn't realise it. And for us there is no Al Gore to rescue us and put us somewhere nice. I saw a blog recently of a woman (jokingly) saying there is no global warming because her area is covered in snow! Very unusual for this time of year where she lives.

In this case we need to get the frog (us humans) to realise its danger and stop it before it's too late. But with all of the psychological forces that are causing blocks in our human resourcefulness and adaptability, we're hard pressed to convince the frog.

Dj Droood is right that we come from survivors. But this isn't going to happen "magically," it takes doing, and I don't see a lot of doing that reflects the desperate situation we're in!

[treegod]

So if it all ends in disaster, is that really more than a very tiny foot note in the history of the universe, even it means an ending of all live on Earth (for the time being). Of course it all will be accompanied by great (human) suffering and no I am not a masochist, so I am not enjoying any of this. Shouldn't we go out to our partners, children, parents, friends, neighbours etc. and try to bring some consolation, if there isn't any hope anymore?

Yes, if there is no hope any more. But for some crazy irrational reason, I do have hope. Maybe it's because I value life and will fight for it's survival. Maybe that makes me a small animal hopelessly fighting itself out of some inescapable trap, but I've gotta fight.

[DJ Droood]

Dj Droood is right that we come from survivors. But this isn't going to happen "magically," it takes doing, and I don't see a lot of doing that reflects the desperate situation we're in!

That is the beauty of Darwinian Evolution...the strong and able and smart will do, the weak and dull will do nothing, and the species will be reduced but strengthened.

[treegod]

"That is the beauty of Darwinian Evolution...the strong and able and smart will do, the weak and dull will do nothing, and the species will be reduced but strengthened."

I wouldn't call it "beauty" but in a way you're right. However, you're talking about how a species evolves, how individuals and groups within it are tested by the various challenges of nature to see if they are fit for survival. It has been known that WHOLE SPECIES have gone extinct because they have not been fit enough to survive the challenges of evolution.

To paraphrase you DJ Droood, "the strong and able and smart species will do, the weak and dull species will do nothing, and the planetary ecosystem (Gaia) will be reduced but strengthened." The "beauty" of Gaia's evolution?

Humans have proved that we can survive as local cultures and civilisations all over the world, from tropical jungle to grassy plains, from arctic snows to dry deserts. We've survived in small tribal societies and HUGE multi-cultural cities. But all of this has been local. Local, local,local. Local survival, local extinction, local evolution.

But now we must prove ourselves worthy of survival on a global scale. How can we survive as a whole globalised species. We are faced with a whole different ball game, a whole new level of survival that no other human civilisation has seen before.

We have proved we can survive as local "compartments" of the human species, but how does this stand collectively on the global scale? Can we survive together, as a whole species, or are we just going to fall apart once and for all? I believe this is the present test for survival for our species. Will we survive globally and evolve globally or go extinct globally?

[DJ Droood]

We have proved we can survive as local "compartments" of the human species, but how does this stand collectively on the global scale? Can we survive together, as a whole species, or are we just going to fall apart once and for all? I believe this is the present test for survival for our species. Will we survive globally and evolve globally or go extinct globally?

Hopefully go extinct, globally, as a culture...this whole "global" thing is pretty recent...humans evolved and thrived in little pockets of local cultures forever. The OIl Age has produced a poisonous global culture that isn't worth preserving, IMO. I hope (and am confident) we will devolve back to many small, disconnected pockets adapted to our locale.

[treegod]

Hopefully go extinct, globally, as a culture...this whole "global" thing is pretty recent...humans evolved and thrived in little pockets of local cultures forever. The OIl Age has produced a poisonous global culture that isn't worth preserving, IMO. I hope (and am confident) we will devolve back to many small, disconnected pockets adapted to our locale.

Reminds me of the Taoist vision of Utopia:
Let your community be small, with only a few people;
Keep tools in abundance, but do not depend upon them;
Appreciate your life and be content with your home;
Sail boats and ride horses, but don't go too far;
Keep weapons and armour, but do not employ them;
Let everyone read and write,
Eat well and make beautiful things.

Live peacefully and delight in your own society;
Dwell within cock-crow of your neighbours,
But maintain your independence from them.

It held a fond place in my heart. It still does, I mean who wouldn't like to live like a Hobbit right? Simple, sane and safe.
But it doesn't reflect the way the world is today for me, it doesn't work for me. After all, I come from a multicultural society, Britain, live in Spain and am in a commited relationship with a Swiss woman. Hardly a local pocket type existence. I'm learning to have to transcend my monolingual background.

I see human communication as inevitable. I see human travel as inevitable. I see human inventiveness and adaptability as inevitable. Because of this I see globalisation as inevitable and that it's seeds were possibly sown when humanity first expanded from Africa across the globe. The subsequant racial and cultural diversification reflects only how adaptable we are to different situations, and this diversity may have to adapt once again to globalisation.

Globalisation may be a recent development in human evolution but humans are a recent development in the Earth's evolution and the status of our species is not set in stone. Nothing lasts forever. For me, globalisation cannot be stopped, only guided. As a human, in this time of history, my work is to carry on the process that has been started. To cultivate what is positive about a global humanity, like the internet and diversity and deconstruct the negatives of a global humanity, like the poisonous "Oil Age" as you call it.

But I'm curious Dj Droood, how do you envision humanity becoming "little pockets of local cultures," and how can that be maintained?
And also, if you're not so up for a global humanity, why use the internet when it is both a product and tool of modern globalisation?

[DJ Droood]

But I'm curious Dj Droood, how do you envision humanity becoming "little pockets of local cultures,"

In many horrific ways! If you asked me this 20 years ago, I would have said "99 Luft Ballons!", or 9 years ago, I would have said "all the computers crashing at once", now I see Bird Flu and SARS, a big comet like "Lucifer's Hammer", a swift collapse of the global economy, or more probably a slow but steady retreat of the current colonial order..."End times" scenarios have always fired my imagination...I could go on and on. I am cheerfully pessimistic...I can't help it. Your life sounds lovely, and very modern and European and I hope the conditions for it continue for a long time and my gloomy scenarios keep proving worthless, just like Y2K did.

and how can that be maintained?

it will just be where the pendulum is at any given moment. You can't maintain...you can just hang on!

And also, if you're not so up for a global humanity, why use the internet when it is both a product and tool of modern globalisation?

I am up for all manner of modern indulgence!...jet travel, the internets, bananas...and I love "internationalism"...humanity is fascinating. I wish I had the resources and another lifetime to wander the world. (oh wait..I am a druid..I *do* have more lifetimes coming) But I think your Toaist vision of Utopia (lovely, btw) rings closer to the truth, and I think it will be a dramatic cosmic gesture that puts us there.