The 4X4 Psychic Test

[treegod]

If people are sincerely trying to vote via intuition there is no need to be worried about bias is there? Otherwise we'd be a load of frauds and charlatans!
I for one sincerely tried to intuit the vehicle. So either it WAS intuition, a random feeling or an unconscious bias I'm not aware of.

Come on! I want to see the results

One thing though, I wonder how this test would compare if it was done on a group specifically for people that believe and practice psychic powers. Here we range from cynics, sceptics, passive believers and active practitioners so the results may be clouded by the fact we have untrained psychic powers and have rather rusty intuitions. Whadya think?

[cursuswalker]

Okay. After 51 votes here are the results:

Ford Ranger 7 13%
Nissan Pathfinder 4 7%
Mitsubishi Montero 4 7%
Jeep Grand Cherokee 6 11%
Volkswagon Touareg 9 17%
Landrover Freelander 10 19%
Toyota Rav4 3 5%
Nissan Terrano 1 1%
Volvo XC90 5 9%
Honda CR-V 2 3%

Total votes : 51

The correct answer, which was chosen completely at random after the list had been drawn up, was NISSAN TERRANO.

By random chance each answer could reasonably have been chosen by 10% of guessers. As the %ages have been rounded down, and are therefore skewed by the extra guess, one can be charitable and say that this option received 2% of guesses.

This means that it was chosen LESS often than by random chance and by quite a margin (8%)

There does seem, on the other hand, to have been a bias towards 4X4's with words such as 'Cherokee', 'Toareg' and 'Freelander', all of which scored more than by random chance. This may be because they were roughly mid-range OR due to a cultural bias towards such words in a Druid Forum.

In any case these results indicate no ability to make a prediction of this kind under these circumstances. They do NOT mean that there is no such ability in any person. For example one cannot say, from these results, that the person who chose correctly does not therefore have such an ability.

It would be interesting to have the correct guesser post about how they chose.

[soulsong]

It would be interesting to have the correct guesser post about how they chose.

My initial instinct was to go for the Freelander. I discarded that as being 'too obvious' since it's the brand I know best.

Then I looked at the Jeep, Volkswagen and Toyota, and figured I was looking at them a) because they had interesting names and b) they were mid table.

The XC90 and CR-V had uncomfortably corporate names and I couldn't bring myself to pick them, having only one choice it apparently had to be a good one.

I didn't pick Ford Ranger because it was first in the list.

That left the Montero or the Terrano. I went for the Montero. That final choice was probably intuition.

Ultimately I think you could have chosen the numbers 1 to 10 and had similar rationalisations. First the refusal to pick 3 or 7, because that's what everyone picks, then an avoidance of 1 or 10 because that's a lack of imagination. Not 5, because that's in the middle. Not 4 because it's boring. That leaves 2, 6, 8 or 9 as 'acceptable choices' for someone trying to be 'original'

Madness!

[cursuswalker]

Thank you. I can't help noticing that people are having a play with the poll now, so I will add my vote as well

[Sad Saille]

As you can see, I came to the party VERY late. Just joined the forum yesterday and thought I would participate. I did choose correctly (and I DID vote before reading the posts). This is surprising to me as I have always noticed that I seem to have a sort of ANTI-Psychic facility. That is, any time I'm faced with a random A/B choice I choose incorrectly around 90% of the time. This IS statistically significant but in the wrong direction. It's as if my own psychic facility is working against me.

Weird I know but there it is.

Light & Love,

Sad Saille

[cursuswalker]

As you can see, I came to the party VERY late. Just joined the forum yesterday and thought I would participate. I did choose correctly (and I DID vote before reading the posts). This is surprising to me as I have always noticed that I seem to have a sort of ANTI-Psychic facility. That is, any time I'm faced with a random A/B choice I choose incorrectly around 90% of the time. This IS statistically significant but in the wrong direction. It's as if my own psychic facility is working against me.

Weird I know but there it is.

Light & Love,

Sad Saille

Thank you for reminding me of this thread

[Frog]

Interesting, but there are other aspects to this.
I originally went to select the Freelander - it's a popular vehicle from a strong 4x4 marque. however, I decided upon the Honda - mainly from my ownership of other Honda vehicles and the level of service, reliability, comfort and customer service that I have received (and compared to other vehicles owned, much better mpg too).

[cursuswalker]

Interesting, but there are other aspects to this.
I originally went to select the Freelander - it's a popular vehicle from a strong 4x4 marque. however, I decided upon the Honda - mainly from my ownership of other Honda vehicles and the level of service, reliability, comfort and customer service that I have received (and compared to other vehicles owned, much better mpg too).

As good criteria as any, though you have debunked the original theory brehind the test

[Sad Saille]

I think that maybe my choice most purely reflected a true "psychic" choice. Unlike many others who have posted their method of choosing, I didn't actually even read the choices. I simply let the cursor roll down the dots and randomly clicked one. I've always found that putting any thought whatsoever into a choice usually blocks any true psychic aspect of making it. My problem is that I am by nature an overly thoughtful person so it's usually impossible for me to ignore my natural inclination to think about a choice (an rethink, and think some more).

[Davin Raincloud]

I chose correctly.

I did it before reading the thread.

Maybe thread should be closed.

I closed my eyes and 'felt' the position of the answer. I didn't read the list.

[cursuswalker]

I chose correctly.

I did it before reading the thread.

Maybe thread should be closed.

I closed my eyes and 'felt' the position of the answer. I didn't read the list.

Can you verify that?

[treegod]

Now, if this were a proper scientific experiement there would the controls put in place so that the person that set up the experiment would be able to verify for themselves the actions of the experiment subjects, right?

Could we say that message boards are unsuitable to conduct stringent scientific experiments?

[cursuswalker]

Now, if this were a proper scientific experiement there would the controls put in place so that the person that set up the experiment would be able to verify for themselves the actions of the experiment subjects, right?

Could we say that message boards are unsuitable to conduct stringent scientific experiments?

Yes. We are on an honesty policy here. Thpough actually the means used to choose are irrelevant. The choice is all that matters. If everyone does it randomly then it sohlud be cgosen no more of less than any other, given an adequate sample size.

[treegod]

Thpough actually the means used to choose are irrelevant.

Yeeeesss, but...

It is a psychic test isn't it? As per the Subject?

[cursuswalker]

Thpough actually the means used to choose are irrelevant.

Yeeeesss, but...

It is a psychic test isn't it? As per the Subject?

Yes, but choosing at random will not produce a worase result than....by random chance. On the other hand psychic powers, if real, could operate under such seemingly random conditions.

[treegod]

Yes, but choosing at random will not produce a worase result than....by random chance. On the other hand psychic powers, if real, could operate under such seemingly random conditions.

They certainly could operate under seemingly random conditions, it's a possibility. But what if they don't, what if they only operate under skilled and practised conditions? Which is another possibility.

I propose that there are a least two possible explanations to the results of this test (that I can think of):
1) That there are no such things as psychic powers
2) That psychic powers don't operate in certain conditions (such as seemingly random conditions).

To eliminate one of these possibilities more tests in different conditions would have to be set up. Perhaps to a group that claims psychic powers instead of a rag-tag group of believers and skeptics, practitioners and non-practitioners. Something a bit more consistently "psychic"?

[treegod]

3) That humans have not yet developed the capacity for psychic powers
4) We are inherently "anti-psychic", and therefore unable to develop such abilities

I'm sure more possibilities may come to me.