Climategate

This subforum is for discussions of any issues and concerns that impact the environment, such as biodiversity, global climate change, genetically engineered plants and animals, human population, animal and nature conservation, natural disasters, etc.
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This subforum is for discussions of any issues and concerns that impact the environment, such as biodiversity, global climate change, genetically engineered plants and animals, human population, animal and nature conservation, natural disasters, etc. Host: Kernos

Re: Climategate

Postby Merlyn » 19 Dec 2009, 23:30

In a very real and self-fulfilling sense, this stuff is inevitable. These people will have their Apocalypse, but the earth will survive it. In fact, the earth may not survive without it
:wink:

(If we want to consider H1N1 for what it is, a designer flu for the gen-x it failed.
Thankfully :applause:

Global warming is real, never said it wasn't. But at .06 degrees it very really isn't the end of days monster the fear mongering media might be making it out to be. :shake:
The normal, predictable and well known climate change we have just been through has been exploited, prophesied, abused, disinformationed and twisted into all manner of methane.
I only ask that we get back to basics and stop polluting,
"That was easy" :)

But yes, I am seeing the cold trend, it is real, not "just out MY window" and coming to a theatre near you "The return of the vikings" (starring brad pitt) :-)

Stoking the fire :warm:
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Re: Climategate

Postby Guardian » 19 Dec 2009, 23:58

Merlyn wrote: But at .06 degrees it very really isn't the end of days monster the fear mongering media might be making it out to be. :shake:

:shake: that I can agree with, but it still something that will have an effect on us for a long period of time, that we can do something about now. Why not support it if for nothing else but for the sake of reducing our global dependency on oil??

Merlyn wrote:
But yes, I am seeing the cold trend, it is real, not "just out MY window"
Right.. the typical cold trend of the La Nina portion of the cycle... see link No. 1.

Stop pollution, but more importantly, stop habitat destruction, fragmentation, and infringement. Stop global warming too, they're all part of the same cause. :shrug:

I think I'm gonna bail on this conversation before I :deadhorse:
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Re: Climategate

Postby Merlyn » 20 Dec 2009, 18:17

Well the sun is out, so our climate change for the day is underway. :D
We ended up with two feet of snow in the fall. That's a record.
Early on we had snow in Arizona and Texas. That's almost unheard of.

Normally if we get slammed in November and December, the cycle gives us a mild January and then slams us into the frozen zone for February and March.

Seems Climate gate is over for this round. I am sure we will be back at it soon, but with better e-mails and disinformation :-)
In the mean time, we will enjoy the snow! :hug:
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Re: Climategate

Postby Twig » 21 Dec 2009, 11:33

Great photos, Merlyn. Fun for a South Texas resident to enjoy. :)

Wow, that was some productive meeting they had in Copenhagen. They came up with such inventive and helpful ideas. :sick: What a total waste of time. The polluters just want to keep polluting, and since they hold the purse-strings, they got their wish.
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Re: Climategate

Postby Merlyn » 22 Dec 2009, 15:02

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8425805.stm

Just a few more days and the lakes will be frozen over, ready for ices skating, playing hockey! :D

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Re: Climategate

Postby Fiacharrey » 22 Dec 2009, 21:25

The most sensible take I have heard yet on the whole Global Warming debate:

http://www.pjtv.com/video/Afterburner_w ... bate/2889/
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Re: Climategate

Postby DJ Droood » 22 Dec 2009, 22:07

Fiacharrey wrote:The most sensible take I have heard yet on the whole Global Warming debate:

http://www.pjtv.com/video/Afterburner_w ... bate/2889/


I will be the first to admit that I don't really understand all (ok, any) of the science behind this debate, and as I get older, it doesn't seem like I am growing any more brain cells. For this reason, I often look to others who I admire and respect to "point the way". (on this debate, and on many other issues...) Conversely, I like to see what positions people I despise and ridicule as dangerous half-wits even dumber than me assume.

Thank you. Sarah Palin, for helping me find my way.

"Climate change is like gravity – a naturally occurring phenomenon that existed long before, and will exist long after, any governmental attempts to affect it," Palin wrote on her Facebook page.
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Re: Climategate

Postby Merlyn » 22 Dec 2009, 22:15

That was pretty good.
The fudge factor... can I use that when I do my taxes :-)
Cap and trade, the ultimate fudge factor tax. 8-)
Interesting note;
Of the internet and other scam artists,
What is there to gain with the idea of Global Warming that would make it worth scamming about? one might ask... :thinking:
http://snardfarker.ning.com/video/alex- ... t%3A128762
http://globalwarminghoax.wordpress.com/ ... defenders/
http://bungalowbillscw.blogspot.com/200 ... egate.html

The "perfect scam" is the perfect storm.
Just like the weather, the climate will always change.
a "convenient truth" :whistle: to tax with...

Global warming is the anti-Christ :wow:
How so?
Unlike all the religion before Christ, Christ told his disciples that disaster is not the hand of god.
But of course the architects of Christianity put in the value added data of apocalypse... :duck:

Making it up as I go along... :whistle:
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Re: Climategate

Postby Guardian » 24 Dec 2009, 09:18

Fiacharrey wrote:The most sensible take I have heard yet on the whole Global Warming debate:

http://www.pjtv.com/video/Afterburner_w ... bate/2889/


there is so much -scientifically- wrong with what he's talking about it would take me forever to account for it all. I don't completely disagree with what he's on to, but you can completely give something a dishonest view just by not accounting for all of the -facts- involved. Such as the earths history example. For much of the earths history there was no LIFE on the planet, life having a fairly big contribution to the state of the atmosphere: autotrophs creating oxygen aka the 'oxygen crisis' to respiring organisms which produced CO2. Much of life on this planet would not be able to survive at pre-life temperatures or climate conditions. Not to mention the geological changes which have taken place over the earths history, or the astrological changes - as in the power output of the sun. If we took the ENTIRETY of earths temperature history into account while making a graph, while discarding all other variables, ANYTHING would seem like a normal course for the global temperature to take.

I have said this once, and I will say it a thousand more times: to anyone who is actually, genuinely interested in the supported evidence involving anthropogenic climate change, I would strongly strongly strongly encourage you to READ THE PEER REVIEWED JOURNAL ARTICLES. There are tens of thousands of them and more. Use google:scholar. Read the abstracts first, then the conclusions and discussion. If you don't understand this information - take a local college course in earth sciences, environmental sciences, ecology, or a related course. Continuing education is available everywhere.

If you're going to educate yourselves, do not simply watch or read the latest opinion article by journalist or politician x y z. This includes things like National Geographic or Scientific American - they are NOT peer-reviewed sources!!! The peer-review process is strict, stringent, and discerning. It is not motivated by politics, money, or any whacky conspiracies. It is motivated by the same force which has brought us modern medicine, the computer, the mars rover, and telecommunications: the united desire to learn more about the world we live in.

If someone presents a piece of information and someone else in the field questions it - THEY MAY TEST these results to ensure that it is valid. They frequently DO. It is this process which brings all of the wonders of science, and if you're going to discuss it with any gusto, please move beyond the conjecture of the laymen, and read the scientific peer-reviewed journal articles.

PLEASE! I am really begging at this point. Here's some to get you started:

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/a ... 2/5515/270
http://www.seaturtle.org/PDF/Parmesan_2003_Nature.pdf
http://ecophys.biology.utah.edu/public/ ... nzweig.pdf
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v3 ... 688a0.html
http://summits.ncat.org/docs/patz_nature_2005.pdf

google: Scholar - http://scholar.google.com/schhp?hl=en&tab=ws



DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH - RESEARCH THE RIGHT SOURCES!


Ok I'm officially banning myself from this thread before I cause massive brain damage from slamming my head against my desk repeatedly. :wall:
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Re: Climategate

Postby Shaun Hayes » 24 Dec 2009, 14:17

What we have to understand IMO, is that this debate is not about the question of man made climate change or not. It is about whether we do something about it or not. The decision makers are influenced by a body of opinion that is quite happy to 'take the hit' on our behalf. The corporate brain reasons that to change would weaken it too much, the humans at risk have the least value commercially, better to let it be and pay the cost of doing nothing, than to lose grip and control of the economic world.

Just like car manufacturers that decide to settle out of court for death and injury cases rather than recall and modify flawed car designs. (See Ford Mustang, Pinto and rear mounted petrol tanks for example).

I think the only way to make a difference is to start a boycott of carbon based fuels and products . . . . and such a suggestion is so difficult nay impossible for all but the luckiest and wealthiest that I simply do not believe it is possible.

Perhaps the true gift is elsewhere, in the galvanising of the people in a way not seen since the 1960's. Perhaps this will lead to other changes that will improve our relationship, and longevity as a race, to the earth and the environment.

This is then, perhaps, where druidry may play its part . . . to bring something of the wisdom and spirituality to our sciences and developments that might avoid the crazy self-destructive paths of the past, but just saying it sounds incredible enough - how to go from here . . . . hmmmm Perhaps we are, after all, in a bit of a jam !!!

Final thought - the poorest peoples of the world, the ones our 1st world leaders are so willing to write off, are the closest to the kind of low impact, non consumer driven way of life required, yet they do not realise this nor have the means to take powerful steps. They are simply poor. Quite a paradox.
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Re: Climategate

Postby Merlyn » 24 Dec 2009, 17:03

Good summary Shaun Hayes,
In a way we are trying to challenge ourselves to do something. The mud pie that we see is sad. With tactical disinformation and those able to create defeating arguments the resulting stalemate is staggering to watch. The issues of disposal in our oceans of nuclear waste, literal time bombs sitting on our ocean floor, the massive amounts of chemicals other than CO2 spewed in the air, growing numbers of automobiles and people on the earth, all play a role in polluting the earth. Making an exaggerated claim, working the data into unsupported facts and such has done more harm than good. Further complicating the issues is of course the micromanagement thinking. None of this is working.

Rather; we really do need to challenge ourselves, and many attempts have been made and defeated. The large money of consumable fuel is even a base for the virtual currency, the EURO. Without it the EURO would fall like a ponzi scheme, the fact it has and never had any real basis in value. The broad side attack of global warming is indeed a circus staged to do nothing more than distract us all from our real goals.

Since the 60s we have been pointing our fingers at the problems. The only real way to make this leap is to make the obvious real.
But we do need to realize; they are out to get us. Without a doubt savvy educated technologically advanced and even politically accurate development of alternative energy is needed.
This is a bigger challenge, one we will either rise to now or eventually have no alternative (the goal of big oil and coal companies) later.

Proving that the climate changes is the grand distraction. Making claims about global warming is presenting method to goal of keeping poor people poor.
I know most seem to miss this, even at the point of "belief" in these grand scams.

But there is no "golden tax" that is going to pave the yellow brick road to ecological future. That is simply not there, does not exist and is the biggest scam of the new century.
No one-world dictatorship will make it all better, there is no rainbow and there is no good in carbon tax. The solutions are already here, right in our own back yard. Instead we have the grand scam.

Humanity is predictable, and giving easy road solutions is all to easy of a scam. If we want change, the governments of the world are the last place we should look to.
Their power over us is already alarming, controlling and deliberately so.

It is not that the problems don't exist. It is that we as a whole are tied up, tangled in debt, scammed from the ground up and made unable to move forward. The wealth of our family is stripped by debt, in mortgaged homes, in credit debt and by marketed products designed to fail, not last. This leaves us desperately hoping some god-like world governing power will save us. We could never be more wrong.

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Re: Climategate

Postby Kernos » 24 Dec 2009, 20:17

Guardian wrote:I have said this once, and I will say it a thousand more times: to anyone who is actually, genuinely interested in the supported evidence involving anthropogenic climate change, I would strongly strongly strongly encourage you to READ THE PEER REVIEWED JOURNAL ARTICLES. There are tens of thousands of them and more. Use google:scholar. Read the abstracts first, then the conclusions and discussion. If you don't understand this information - take a local college course in earth sciences, environmental sciences, ecology, or a related course. Continuing education is available everywhere.
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH - RESEARCH THE RIGHT SOURCES!

Ok I'm officially banning myself from this thread before I cause massive brain damage from slamming my head against my desk repeatedly. :wall:


I agree with you in principle, Guardian, but practically it is not possible for most of us to use primary sources of scientific information. Even in my discipline of which I am supposed to be an expert, anatomic pathology, it is impossible for me to keep up. I read reviews, digests, some abstracts and mostly on an ad hoc basis.

I do read some primary sources (ie, peer reviewed articles) and reviews in other disciplines, but I don't really have the tools to critically evaluate most of the articles. So I have to depend on 2° and 3° sources and even sources like Scientific American or ScienceNews or books written for educated lay persons, by experts in fields of interest. EG, while Scientific American is not peer reviewed, the articles are written by scientists who are writing summaries of their peer reviewed work. The best of these also include contrary evidence/theories and sources for further investigation.

What is clear from my studies of human induced elevations in CO2 levels and other environmental damage, is that the preponderance of evidence supports this theory as do 95+% of scientists working in the field. It is clear to me that sometime within the next century that the chances of global civilization destroying environmental changes are great enough, that we should be forcing a decrease in CO2 levels NOW, by what ever means necessary. Since this will not happen, as was obvious from Copenhagen, I will do what I can for me an mine to survive. There is also the paradox that to do what is necessary ensure this does not happen, will also fundamentally change our civilization.

I find it very disturbing that so many people on other forums I frequent say they do not believe in global warming. It is not a matter of faith, but of physics. These people are either naive, afraid, have other agendas or are simply stupid. This may sound arrogant, but this seem to apply to the masses. I also think that politicians, the controllers of human behavior, are ill-equipped to deal with global physics. Other mechanisms for dealing with human behavior would need to be used to make much difference.

A question I keep asking myself is, "is our global civilization worth preserving?"

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Re: Climategate

Postby Guardian » 24 Dec 2009, 22:54

Kernos wrote:I agree with you in principle, Guardian, but practically it is not possible for most of us to use primary sources of scientific information. Even in my discipline of which I am supposed to be an expert, anatomic pathology, it is impossible for me to keep up. I read reviews, digests, some abstracts and mostly on an ad hoc basis.


Oh I quite agree in that situation, with my field too. That advice is mostly aimed at people who you address in the last bit of your response - the stubborn, the ignorant, the ill-informed. They read a blog and decide they know what's up, or they hear about hacked emails and assume the whole thing is a hoax, or a conspiracy, or humans have no effect on it. This is what drives me up a wall, and this is when I send people to primary sources. While 2° and 3° sources are acceptable for people who already understand what they're researching and already agree with the consensus of the scientific community, I feel as though primary sources are the only effective way to educate skeptics/deniers. Because while Al Gore, or Glenn Beck, or a random youtube blogger, or a magazine article might lie to you or distort the facts, a primary source will not.
I have been able to sway many people who adamantly reject the concept of man-made global warming just by showing them the literature on it. That it HAS been studied, and that there IS evidence support it, from an unbiased source.

Kernos wrote:What is clear from my studies of human induced elevations in CO2 levels and other environmental damage, is that the preponderance of evidence supports this theory as do 95+% of scientists working in the field. It is clear to me that sometime within the next century that the chances of global civilization destroying environmental changes are great enough, that we should be forcing a decrease in CO2 levels NOW, by what ever means necessary. Since this will not happen, as was obvious from Copenhagen, I will do what I can for me an mine to survive. There is also the paradox that to do what is necessary ensure this does not happen, will also fundamentally change our civilization.


(to specify, I'm referring to what happened at Copenhagen, not what you just said :))I think this is where my brain just starts to fizzle. I don't get this. It just doesn't click in my head. My husband brings up the economic issues with addressing global warming or habitat destruction or overfishing and I just give him a blank stare. Economic?! How can you even be thinking about the economy?! We're destroying our ability to live on this planet and the excuse is that it's not cost-effective??! I mean I -know- that this is a problem and an issue and needs to be addressed, but I have to force myself to know that. I have to FORCE myself to accept the fact that people will give up on doing the right thing because of the politics or economics involved.
It seems so black and white to me. We know whats wrong, we know what we have to do, why the hell are we arguing about doing it??? Who gives a sh*t about debt and taxes when our current way of life immediately or the survival of our species ultimately is on the line? (I'm referring to ecological responsibility in general and not just climate change at this point)
We are very arrogant. We have this "The world is ours to use as we see fit, f*ck everyone else, it will fix itself" attitude that I haven't understood since childhood and I don't plan on understanding it now. We are LUCKY to be here, we are LUCKY to have the level of comfort that we have now!! The concerns of money are a luxury. We are essentially going to force ourselves to give up that luxury because we refuse to give it up. By doing nothing in hopes of preserving this way of life we are destroying this way of life. We refuse to pay reparations to poor countries in order to have a consensual agreement which will help us all because we feel entitled to the wealth we gained at everyone else's expense. So instead, nothing will happen and we will lose it all anyways.
It's times like this, and discussions like this which lead me to believe that I no longer have any stock in the human race. To be so "enlightened" and yet so stupid is beyond heartbreaking to me.


Kernos wrote:A question I keep asking myself is, "is our global civilization worth preserving?"


The more we do nothing to change our fate, the more strongly I answer that question 'NO'.

I suppose I'm just naive to think that the global civilization we have now would be capable of addressing all of these issues in a controlled and responsible manner, that they wouldn't descend into playground politics, and that our world leaders should truly be interested in the well being of their citizens, as well as the well being of everyone across the globe. :gloomy:

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Re: Climategate

Postby Aelfarh » 25 Dec 2009, 03:20

Guardian, I just want to say that I agree with your posts, and you express much of my own thoughts and frustration about the topic.
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Re: Climategate

Postby Guardian » 25 Dec 2009, 06:26

Aelfarh wrote:Guardian, I just want to say that I agree with your posts, and you express much of my own thoughts and frustration about the topic.


You have no idea how relieving it is to hear that. :hug:
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Re: Climategate

Postby Hennie » 25 Dec 2009, 07:18

Kernos wrote:
A question I keep asking myself is, "is our global civilization worth preserving?"



Guardian wrote:


The more we do nothing to change our fate, the more strongly I answer that question 'NO'. ?"


That is what troubles me often.
Given "the human condition" our means of character, our possibility to overlook the consequences of our deeds, the way our minds work etc.etc. could we have done/can we do things different than we have done/ do?

If yes, we are very guilty and to blame; if no we are not guilty but just plain stupid. In both cases we are a real danger to the world. Lets kill ourselves - oh, umm :???:
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Re: Climategate

Postby Shaun Hayes » 25 Dec 2009, 11:54

I do not think we should be so hard on ourselves, this is unnecessarrily destructive. One of the problems of this inertia is that no-one and I mean no-one trusts their leaders, politicians or public servants. Think about that - we elect people we do not trust. Only when the danger is so close, so obvious, so undeniable, do we suddenly turn into these amazing self-sacrificing, resourceful, strong, single minded beings who are then capable of the most incredible things - and so quickly too. But we cannot do these things without truth, leadership, a just cause etc. So it usually only appears in certain kinds of war, the kind we haven't seen since 1945.

I contend though, and call to my druid brothers, not to despair, to see the process we are engaged in as a necessary build up of pressure, a head of steam if you like, to the point where the idea of doing nothing is swept away, and we finally galvanise into action and do the right thing(s), and then afterwards in the opportunity this might afford, we then go on to design the political structures we all want. In peace.

A dream - yes, but the alternatives - anarchy and deathly depression, world destruction (from a human perspective at least) are not really alternatives at all, simply outcomes. So be light bodies, be informed, be resolute, and start doing what you can instead of worrying about what you can't.

<here endeth shaun's xmas message to the world :whistle: :whistle: :whistle: >

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Re: Climategate

Postby DJ Droood » 25 Dec 2009, 17:09

Shaun Hayes wrote:So be light bodies, be informed, be resolute, and start doing what you can instead of worrying about what you can't.


Excellent wisdom Shaun Hayes. Thank you.
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Re: Climategate

Postby Fiacharrey » 28 Dec 2009, 05:16

Guardian wrote:
Fiacharrey wrote:
I have said this once, and I will say it a thousand more times: to anyone who is actually, genuinely interested in the supported evidence involving anthropogenic climate change, I would strongly strongly strongly encourage you to READ THE PEER REVIEWED JOURNAL ARTICLES. There are tens of thousands of them and more.


How many of them are relying on the same fudged set of data or a set derived from that set? Which ones didn't rely on the extremely flawed, closed source computer modeling software?
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Re: Climategate

Postby Kernos » 28 Dec 2009, 17:52

Fiacharrey wrote:
Guardian wrote:
Fiacharrey wrote:
I have said this once, and I will say it a thousand more times: to anyone who is actually, genuinely interested in the supported evidence involving anthropogenic climate change, I would strongly strongly strongly encourage you to READ THE PEER REVIEWED JOURNAL ARTICLES. There are tens of thousands of them and more.


How many of them are relying on the same fudged set of data or a set derived from that set? Which ones didn't rely on the extremely flawed, closed source computer modeling software?


The only way to determine that is to read the peer-reviewed articles in academic journals and critically evaluate their methodology, results and conclusions.

Do some scientists "fudge" data? A tiny % do; they are human after all and have all human foibles. Are they absolutely objective - of course not. No one is. But the scientific method is self correcting over time. Experiments are repeated and results needs be reproducible before accepted. Modeling is important, and the methods for the models are published. As data accumulates the models become more accurate. Compare the spaghetti diagrams for hurricane paths, eg, all based on different models, which together give quite accurate probabilities for paths, wind strengths and landfalls.

Climatology is mature enough that most model probabilities can be considered quite accurate.

Without going through the effort to read the science, any person's opinion is at best wishful thinking.

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