Merlyn wrote:Which followed a record hot summer.
The climbing temperature of the earth seems to have triggered a wide swing in resulting weather.
Knowing that weather is in many ways caused by geography, the ocean currents and what is a complex cycling of these and other factors, it seems the mood swings of the earth are far from what was predicted.
My question to Kernos and others, could the wide swings from hot to cold and back to hot etc, be the "coping" mechanism the earth has for too much CO2 ?
Or does the scientific community see this as a result of other factors.
Last year was the warmest in Canada since it began keeping meteorological records 63 years ago, with average temperatures three degrees Celsius above normal, the Environment Ministry said Wednesday.
Good morning Ottawa. It’s the coldest Jan. 24 since records have been kept.
The bone-chilling -28.6 C temperature at 5 a.m., broke the previous record for the date of -27.8 set in 1970.
Factor in the wind chill, and it’s going to feel like -37 C, according to Environment Canada.
Here's a warm thought for Canadians complaining about the cold: the winters here are not nearly as frigid as they once were.
Vast swaths of this country are experiencing a winter freeze that has become the subject of numerous media reports and even made international news Monday with the online headline from Britain's BBC: "Wind chill warnings across Canada."
But figures compiled by Environment Canada, and released to The Canadian Press, provide a little perspective.
Those statistics from the national weather office reveal a drastic drop in the number of cold days — defined as anything -15 C or colder — in recent decades.
The trend is noted in every city measured across the country — in Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, Winnipeg and Calgary. Even Vancouver's mild winters have gotten milder.
MONDAY 10 PM
UKMET AND ME: WE HAVE TO AGREE TO DISAGREE ON 2011 TEMP.
I kept me mouth shut last year when the UKMET folks had the warmest year ever forecasted because of the el nino. And it was a good forecast in my opinion since even if it did not make it, it was close. BUT I HAD NO PROBLEM WITH THAT because it wasnt that big a deal. If we look at the sat data over the last 30 years, and stack on the nino, well I had no problem with the forecast being close to my idea. I did get into a disagreement the winter before with the cold I thought we would have, not a top 5 mild winter, but going into that, I actually pointed out that the summer of 2009 was warm as they said, though it did rain more.
However now, if what I hear is right, we have a disagreement. Assuming there is a forecast for a global temp in 2011 of .44C above normal, down from 2010, then there is a major disagreement as I have near normal forecast for 2011!
So we shall see who is closer.
BTW Jan looks like it will come in at about .1C BELOW normal!!! The forecast for Dec was .2C above ( it was .18C) The drop to below normal has occurred faster than I thought ( I had it making it there in March.
So in this case, again assuming what I hear from my sources is correct, we do have a debate.
thanks for reading, ciao for now ***
AGAIN, NO SEVERE COLD IN SITE FOR UK/IRELAND
I want to make sure that I am clear on this.
That doesnt mean a day or two of cold or snow cant show up, its winter, but the core of the coming cold is in the south of europe, to the southeast of the UK and Ireland and I want to make sure that this is clear. It is as was said before the winter, though it took longer in the south to get in in there and did skew Jan warmer than I thought.
But I dont see a big cold event that would lead to the punishment we took in the northwest in December.
What a turn around!!! London, my "scoring city" so to speak was 7.5 BELOW normal in Dec, and is running 2.2 above normal in Jan. I think we can say, that Jan has not been cold, even if it does go below normal for a few days.
Moral is..the land of my ancestors ( Italia) will be colder against the normals than the land of my wife. I am married to a Lass of Scottish extraction... so I better get it right!!!!
ciao for now ****
SATURDAY 7 PM
IT TOOK A WHILE, BUT NOW I CAN SMILE ( ABOUT THE WINTER FORECAST IDEA FOR EUROPE)
I am pleased to say that no sustained cold is in sight the next 2 weeks for UKMET and IRELAND! Back and forth, sure. but overall there is nothing special I can see through Feb 5. And this was the main thrust of the mid and late winter idea. But I was not happy about the slow development of consistent below normal across the south, but its here now and likely to stay, with the cold pool from now through the 5th of Feb centered from Spain into the Balkans and moving back and forth. This blog is not to start picking out details in these areas, it is to let readers know that I am still not seeing the return of the kind of severe cold to the northwest that we had in December, and has been a source of speculation, consternation and challenge to my ideas since the cold broke. I am though seeing, and again, a couple of weeks later than I would have wanted from when I issued this forecast back in the fall, the turn to colder in the south in a way where it is going to hold for a while to come.
Over in the US, the southeast US is having one of their coldest winters on record, absolutely amazing giving the fact its a la nina winter and with the exception of 1918, something that has never happened in a La nina winter. In fact if we took all the first year la nina winters ( winters with at least a moderate la nina one winter and another one right after.. I think the nina continues into next winter) this winter in the US is unheard of!
Perhaps some of the folks that thought the hammer would continue to pound away in northwest Europe had the right idea in a way. For when you go into such cold patterns, 2 out of 3 of the major teleconnections points between the far east, eastern n america and western europe will try to hold on. In this case it was the eastern Us and eastern asia.
The global temps at noon london time was -.25C Its on this site
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... ml#picture
thanks for reading, ciao for now *****
QUICK COMMENT ON WARMINGISTA IDEAS ON FLOODING.
I play around half kidding with that term... warmingista, but I really wonder. When you see the contradiction in their statements, you have to understand that someone like me, who has to know the cause of past events to help with future ideas, comes to the conclusion they can't be serious about what they say is the cause, and it has to be something else.
Now take the flooding in Australia. If we look at similar or greater events, guess what the common thread is? A La Nina. What do La Ninas do to the global temperature? Come on now, look at what is happening to the global temperature... a crash of over 0.5 C since August... it's cooling, right? Why does it precipitate more than normal? what is needed for it? Well, one can argue a warmer, more moist air mass before, but one needs something to set that off. What would that be? Hmmm, we need a clash (A great band, by the way), and we need cooling... baby, I ain't fooling (some Led Zepplin there for you too).
IT'S THE COOLING THAT IS SETTING ALL THIS OFF. If you want to blame warmth... you must refer to it in the past tense, because widespread cooling in the face of warming leads to clashes.
But again, right off the bat, they can't be looking at the facts, or if they are, they are simply blind to the fact that floods like this have occurred in times of global temperature falls, not rises.
Look at the actual weather, will you? Can't account for missing heat that the models show, but is not in the data, so these guys say the data is wrong. Floods occur in Australia in La Nina, when global temperatures are falling, and they say it's because it's warming.
By the way, get ready for an upturn in the arctic ice. The AO is going positive now, and the late-season rally, and subsequent slower melt season, is going to occur as I have opined. We shall see who is right and who is wrong about the summer melt season this year. Just keep your eye on the data, and you will see who is right and who is wrong on the global temperature. If you want to fault me, it's because I was not cold enough, quick enough.
Ciao for now. ****
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