Out of time?

[Dysgwr]

I've just seen this rather scary graphic on the BBC (http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2012061 ... tock-check) its a couple of months old now but as skeptics what do we think of the predictions?

2060 and a 2ºC temperature rise seems to stand out quite a lot among the confusion of resources ceasing to exist or is this another case of media over simplification?

[DJ Droood]

I've just seen this rather scary graphic on the BBC (http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2012061 ... tock-check) its a couple of months old now but as skeptics what do we think of the predictions?

As a skeptic? I think the climate is getting hotter, and I'm pretty sure modern society is to blame. As a cynic? Nothing will be done about it..it is already too late...vested interests and their unfortunate fans will continue to obscure the message. As a romantic? Gaia will protect the creatures of this planet and make the ocean currents spin backwards, or something, and save us all....or small pockets of adaptable humans (and moose, etc.) will live in pockets of sustainability and reconstruct society motivated by love, justice and equality. As a pragmatist? I need to walk the dog, and I will meditate on the Serenity Prayer: God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; the courage to change the things I can; and the wisdom to know the difference.

[Aphritha]

Gaia will protect the creatures of this planet and make the ocean currents spin backwards, or something, and save us all....or small pockets of adaptable humans (and moose, etc.) will live in pockets of sustainability and reconstruct society motivated by love, justice and equality.

When and how do you think we'll start seeing these societies pop up? Maybe I ought to brush up on speaking Moose....

[DJ Droood]

Gaia will protect the creatures of this planet and make the ocean currents spin backwards, or something, and save us all....or small pockets of adaptable humans (and moose, etc.) will live in pockets of sustainability and reconstruct society motivated by love, justice and equality.

When and how do you think we'll start seeing these societies pop up? Maybe I ought to brush up on speaking Moose....

After the ice caps all melt, crops fail world-wide and the human population plummets to a "bottleneck"..I doubt if I will see them pop up, but I hope you do. (or not...that almost sounds like a curse for anyone...I hope for the miracle and we all ease into old age with minimal discomfort)

[Til]

Those of us in the UK can't see the article, so I don't know what the predictions you're discussing are (except the one mentioned). Recently studied global warming as part of a course I'm doing, and it seems as if anthropogenic climate change is pretty much a fact. I agree with DJ, if nothing is done about it, nothing will change, and to be honest business as usual is far too profitable. Makes me angry, but what do the people making the money care anyway, they'll be dead by the time it's a serious problem. I guess we can all take hope and comfort from the idea of sustainable pockets of moose.

Edit: To clarify, we can't see the article because it's on the international part of the BBC, and therefore not covered by license fee. I tried searching for a UK version, but none seems to exist.

[treegod]

Okay. That's some challenge for us. Time to wake up and do some walking.

[kukl]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/ne ... 594561.stm
According to Professor James Lovelock it's already too late. His Gaia theory has the earth and all life upon it as a self contained, self regulating system. If an irresponsible species upsets the equilibrium too much Gaia compensates. Mass extinctions have happened many times in the past. Still it's not the end of the world!

[treegod]

It's the end of the human world.

[Til]

Nice link, but one thing that gets me is the idea that renewables don't really work. I'm not sure I agree there. Sure, there's a lot of business involved in it, and I'm quite sure a lot of companies don't do it because they actually care about the environment (take for example most oil companies, who are funding research into alternative energy sources. I don't believe they actually care, rather they know that one day the oil will run out and they'll need something to replace their profits with. Good to get people used to the idea of new energy technology sooner, makes for an easier transition).

But corporate involvement aside, the idea that it doesn't work I really don't understand. Can anyone shed light here? We have solar panels on our roof. On a sunny day, our meter goes backwards. Seems to work to me! Or is that oversimplification?

[kukl]

We could make enough power for our needs through renewable sources, but not anywhere near the rate we currently consume it. Also the emerging economies are demanding way more than is sustainable. Lovelocks' model has a far smaller human population and the use of nuclear power. Surely the only real answer is for the human race to alter radically the way it lives. The wheel of the year isn't just some quaint idea from the past or an excuse for a party every six weeks.

[DJ Droood]

But corporate involvement aside, the idea that it doesn't work I really don't understand. Can anyone shed light here? We have solar panels on our roof. On a sunny day, our meter goes backwards. Seems to work to me! Or is that oversimplification?

I think the technology works, but it is both an energy in/energy out question...how much energy resources would be required to produces, distribute and install more than just supplementary amounts of panels?..and would renewables ever be able to replace the vast amounts of energy society currently uses?

[Til]

In reply to :

I think the technology works, but it is both an energy in/energy out question...how much energy resources would be required to produces, distribute and install more than just supplementary amounts of panels?..and would renewables ever be able to replace the vast amounts of energy society currently uses?

This:

Surely the only real answer is for the human race to alter radically the way it lives. The wheel of the year isn't just some quaint idea from the past or an excuse for a party every six weeks.

Makes logical sense. If we can't sustain our current way of life, our way of life has to change. Not that it'll happen on anything like a large enough scale, according to my inner cynic. And it's apparently too little too late, anyway!

[DJ Droood]

Makes logical sense. If we can't sustain our current way of life, our way of life has to change. Not that it'll happen on anything like a large enough scale, according to my inner cynic. And it's apparently too little too late, anyway!

I take comfort that some are building sustainable "escape pods"....the majority, unfortunately, will suffer, but some will make the correct changes to survive, i hope.

[Dysgwr]

the majority, unfortunately, will suffer, but some will make the correct changes to survive, i hope.

My inner skeptic/cynic says that many of those that will be 'saved' are those that got us into the mess in the first place while 'lying' to many who believed them instead of saving themselves... isn't the human condition fascinating...

[DJ Droood]

the majority, unfortunately, will suffer, but some will make the correct changes to survive, i hope.

My inner skeptic/cynic says that many of those that will be 'saved' are those that got us into the mess in the first place while 'lying' to many who believed them instead of saving themselves... isn't the human condition fascinating...

Yea...if they build an escape pod to a giant casino orbiting earth, or an Atlantis under a bubble, I think it will be Bush and Windsor and Rothschild and Al Saud DNA swilling cognac and not Droood...maybe my kin can get a job at the blackjack table!

Actually, I was thinking much smaller...the regular people who are taking steps now to be less grid dependent and collect survival skills and resources and build sub-communities will have a better shot at finding a way to adapyt than most of us sheeple...baaaaa

[Aoife]

I've just seen this rather scary graphic on the BBC (http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2012061 ... tock-check) its a couple of months old now but as skeptics what do we think of the predictions?

As a skeptic? I think the climate is getting hotter, and I'm pretty sure modern society is to blame. As a cynic? Nothing will be done about it..it is already too late...vested interests and their unfortunate fans will continue to obscure the message. As a romantic? Gaia will protect the creatures of this planet and make the ocean currents spin backwards, or something, and save us all....or small pockets of adaptable humans (and moose, etc.) will live in pockets of sustainability and reconstruct society motivated by love, justice and equality. As a pragmatist? I need to walk the dog, and I will meditate on the Serenity Prayer: God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; the courage to change the things I can; and the wisdom to know the difference.

I pretty much feel the same way lol.

[Aphritha]

Actually, I was thinking much smaller...the regular people who are taking steps now to be less grid dependent and collect survival skills and resources and build sub-communities will have a better shot at finding a way to adapyt than most of us sheeple...baaaaa

This ends up being a constant topic at home, and I have to say I agree. I believe those who will live the best lives are those who are willing to adapt with the natural cycles('cause even though many people would believe otherwise, we're still a part of nature) rather than those who try to alter the world to suit their needs.

[envisager]

2C is a fairly optimistic possibility: At 2C, the consequences for humanity are severe but manageable

The consequences are spelt out in the Stern Review (I know, it's very long and deals with economics, but it is free and worth the read if you have the time). There's also a condensed version of the Stern Review which is good for a snapshot (when I say condensed, it's still very long).

If you want a copy, you can get it here:

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov. ... _index.htm

Renewable energy is dealt with best by Mackay best in his book: Renewable Energy without the Hot Air. Again this is free: It's a bit long but he does give good summaries. You can get the free copy here: (download the pdf for the free version)

http://www.withouthotair.com/

In the very long term, there is no option for humanity other than solar renewable energy or a return to pre-industrial age (which means depopulation on a vast scale): Only solar has the potential capacity to provide current levels of supply but other types of renewables may supplement it and, if the problem of energy storage is solved (not that likely), then other renewables such as wind may be a heavy supplement. But this means a 'world grid' or a change to hydrogen or ammonia as the primary fuel for shipping.

Another problem that's coming up on the horizon is Global Oil depletion. It's possible that shale gas or tar sands may replace oil but there are some negative consequences

More info here: http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/Global%20Oil%20Depletion

[Explorer]

I don't know, there is so much B.S. that I don't really trust much of it. And as a result I kind of don't worry about it too much.
Like this summer there was this hype that 97% of Greenland had melted and people actually believing it... yeah right, I would be under a few meters of ocean now if that had happened

And there simply are these flaws in the logic that everybody with basic chemistry knowledge should see.
Like you can't destroy basic elements like metals, except with nuclear fission. You can dig them up and haul the to the other side of the world. But that doesn't mean that they are depleted, they are simply somewhere else. I've already seen 'the next business opportunities' sprout, they call it 'urban mining', and it is cheaper and less damaging than open pit mining.

It is these kind of things that make me angry. People manipulating others, scaring others, playing with figures. It is not much different than politicians and religious leaders, except that these are supposed to be 'the good guys'. I'm sure that many of them mean well, but if they want my attention and full cooperation then they will have to start with honesty, because I'm allergic to B.S.

[DJ Droood]

I don't know, there is so much B.S. that I don't really trust much of it. And as a result I kind of don't worry about it too much.

I honestly don't "worry" about it much either...to be truthful, so far global warming has meant mild winters and glorious (if slightly dry) summers for me. Maybe when the price of food starts to really take off, we will pay more attention, since It is usually the price of bread that sparks popular revolt and change.

But as druids, I would think it isn't so much what we believe in the scientific data or which side of the political debates we support, but rather what we know in our hearts is the right thing to do...live simpler lives, consume less, reduce our footprint, be more self-sufficient, help our neighbours, protect our local environment....whatever the ultimate outcome, at least we can live honourably now.